Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wanderers · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Wanderers are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Danubio are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDDLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Wanderers hold a 10.6-point power-rating edge (52.4 v 41.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.5% in the Primera División, while Wanderers holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 29% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Wanderers
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Wanderers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60