GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/10/2023, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Forest Green · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Walsall are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Forest Green are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Forest Green hold a 19.9-point power-rating edge (32.9 v 52.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.0% in the EFL Trophy, while Forest Green holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Forest Green

Probability

39.0%

Model confidence

39.0%

Forest Green has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

WalsallLDWLL

GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Forest GreenLLLLL

GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
WalsallForest Green
55.6Attack33.3
22.2Defence83.3
11.1Form41.7
32.9Power52.8
1.45xG1.64
View match centre →