World · World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · 10/13/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wales W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (11%), 4-0 (10%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wales W 3-0 Albania W
Original prediction
Wales W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.13 | 80.0% | 60.9% | -19.1 pts |
| Draw | 6.40 | 14.1% | 21.2% | 7.1 pts |
| Away | 15.23 | 5.9% | 17.9% | 12.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–011%
- 2.4–010%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
Wales W
Probability
60.9%
Model confidence
60.9%
Wales W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80