Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Norway · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wales 2-1 Norway
Original prediction
Norway
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.65 | 14.2% | 28.4% | 14.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.82 | 19.6% | 25.9% | 6.3 pts |
| Away | 1.43 | 66.1% | 45.7% | -20.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Norway
Probability
45.7%
Model confidence
45.7%
Norway has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WalesLLLDD
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
NorwayLWDWD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
WalesNorway
0.0Attack66.7
50.0Defence33.3
0.0Form50.0
21.5Power53.0
1.22xG1.42