Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Denmark · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wales 0-1 Denmark
Original prediction
Denmark
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.82 | 24.9% | 34.5% | 9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 26.5% | 27.2% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.95 | 48.6% | 38.3% | -10.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.95 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Denmark
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Denmark has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WalesWLLLD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
DenmarkLWLWD
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
WalesDenmark
22.2Attack66.7
55.6Defence22.2
33.3Form33.3
40.3Power42.2
1.40xG1.30