Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern
Friday, 31 July 202618:00Updated today
Wacker Burghausen

Wacker Burghausen

Home
D
vs
18:00
Bayern München II

Bayern München II

Away
L
Wacker Arena
GoalVio prediction
63% confidence
Wacker Burghausen(63%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Wacker Burghausen
63%
Draw
23%
Bayern München II
15%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Wacker Burghausen
34
Bayern München II
9
Defence
Wacker Burghausen
66
Bayern München II
27
Momentum
Wacker Burghausen
33
Bayern München II
0
Danger (xG)
Wacker Burghausen
0.90
Bayern München II
0.00
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 3.68 xG for Wacker Burghausen and 1.02 xG for Bayern München II — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 3-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Wacker Burghausen holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's meaningful attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 4.69 — high attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 3-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 4 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating high xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.

xG for (Wacker Burghausen)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Bayern München II)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Wacker Burghausen)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Bayern München II)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Wacker BurghausenWacker Burghausen
DL
Bayern München IIBayern München II
LW

Probability breakdown

63% confidence
Wacker Burghausen63%
Draw23%
Bayern München II15%

Wacker Burghausen leads with 63% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Wacker Burghausen Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Wacker Burghausen host Bayern München II in Regionalliga - Bayern. Wacker Burghausen have recorded WLWLDW in recent matches while Bayern München II arrive with a run of WLLLLL.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 3.68 expected goals for Wacker Burghausen against 1.02 for Bayern München II — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Wacker Burghausen's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 61% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: 📈 Recent Form Wacker Burghausen arrive in better recent form — 3 wins from 10 matches (WLWLDW) against Bayern München II's 1. Form over the last 5–6 games is one of the most predictive short-term signals in the model, capturing momentum that longer-term averages can miss.

Why GoalVio backs this

Wacker Burghausen are generating a dominant xG advantage — 3.68 projected against 1.02 for Bayern München II. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 2.66 is the clearest signal in the model that Wacker Burghausen are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The model's projection is based on averages — individual moments of quality, tactical adjustments, or set-piece situations can always override statistical trends. Wacker Burghausen are favoured, but football rarely follows the script exactly.

Risk factors

  • Wacker Burghausen have been conceding 1.71 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Recent form

Wacker Burghausen

Wacker Burghausen

D
vs Augsburg II
17 Jul 2026
11
L
@ SpVgg Unterhaching
16 May 2026
04
Bayern München II

Bayern München II

L
vs Legia Warszawa
27 Jun 2026
02
W
@ Viktoria Aschaffenburg
16 May 2026
50

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Wacker Burghausen vs Bayern München II?

GoalVio's model predicts Wacker Burghausen to win with 63% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Wacker Burghausen vs Bayern München II?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Wacker Burghausen vs Bayern München II?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Wacker Burghausen vs Bayern München II?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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