Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Waalwijk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Waalwijk 4-2 NAC Breda
Original prediction
Waalwijk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.79 | 33.3% | 38.2% | 4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 25.2% | 25.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.23 | 41.6% | 36.8% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Waalwijk
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Waalwijk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WaalwijkDDDDW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
NAC BredaDWLWL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
WaalwijkNAC Breda
50.0Attack58.3
50.0Defence41.7
33.3Form58.3
48.3Power55.9
1.76xG1.60