Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Waalwijk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Waalwijk 6-1 MVV
Original prediction
Waalwijk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 57.6% | 51.3% | -6.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.04 | 22.9% | 22.9% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 4.75 | 19.5% | 25.8% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Waalwijk
Probability
51.3%
Model confidence
51.3%
Waalwijk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WaalwijkWWDDD
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
MVVLDWLW
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
WaalwijkMVV
66.7Attack50.0
55.6Defence50.0
55.6Form72.2
60.9Power60.2
2.00xG1.36