Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Waalwijk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 3-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Waalwijk 1-1 Emmen
Original prediction
Waalwijk
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 43.7% | 50.6% | 6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 25.5% | 22.3% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 3.00 | 30.8% | 27.1% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.63 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–17%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.3–27%
Predicted outcome
Waalwijk
Probability
50.6%
Model confidence
50.6%
Waalwijk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WaalwijkLWWWD
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
EmmenWLLWL
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
WaalwijkEmmen
75.0Attack75.0
54.2Defence29.2
54.2Form62.5
60.0Power56.9
3.08xG1.84