Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VVV Venlo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
VVV Venlo 2-0 Roda
Original prediction
VVV Venlo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.37 | 38.9% | 42.6% | 3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 25.1% | 25.6% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.57 | 36.0% | 31.8% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
VVV Venlo
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
VVV Venlo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VVV VenloLWWLW
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
RodaWDWDD
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
VVV VenloRoda
87.5Attack37.5
41.7Defence79.2
62.5Form62.5
63.5Power62.4
1.70xG1.28