Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VVV Venlo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 3-2 (7%), 4-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
VVV Venlo 4-4 Jong AZ
Original prediction
VVV Venlo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 48.2% | 57.4% | 9.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 22.8% | 19.4% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 3.22 | 29.0% | 23.3% | -5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.10 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.3–27%
- 3.4–17%
Predicted outcome
VVV Venlo
Probability
57.4%
Model confidence
57.4%
VVV Venlo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VVV VenloWWLWW
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Jong AZLWDLW
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
VVV VenloJong AZ
86.7Attack73.3
53.3Defence40.0
70.0Form43.3
69.3Power52.0
3.51xG1.80