Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VVV Venlo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
VVV Venlo 3-1 FC OSS
Original prediction
VVV Venlo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 50.7% | 58.9% | 8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 23.9% | 20.8% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 3.66 | 25.4% | 20.4% | -5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.83 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
VVV Venlo
Probability
58.9%
Model confidence
58.9%
VVV Venlo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VVV VenloLWWWL
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
FC OSSLWLLL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
VVV VenloFC OSS
86.7Attack26.7
40.0Defence40.0
60.0Form20.0
61.4Power32.1
2.77xG1.15