Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VVV Venlo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
VVV Venlo 4-0 Emmen
Original prediction
VVV Venlo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 38.7% | 37.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.6% | 24.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 36.7% | 37.8% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
VVV Venlo
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
VVV Venlo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VVV VenloWWLLL
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
EmmenWWWWL
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
VVV VenloEmmen
77.8Attack100.0
44.4Defence44.4
66.7Form100.0
64.7Power85.2
1.94xG1.97