Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zwaluwen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vvsb 2-4 Zwaluwen
Original prediction
Zwaluwen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 36.1% | 34.7% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 22.2% | 26.5% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 41.7% | 38.8% | -3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Zwaluwen
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Zwaluwen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VvsbDLLLW
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ZwaluwenLWWWL
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
VvsbZwaluwen
50.0Attack66.7
50.0Defence66.7
50.0Form100.0
50.0Power80.3
1.42xG1.57