Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vukovar · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vukovar 2-3 Jadran LP
Original prediction
Vukovar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.0% | 38.4% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.0% | 28.9% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.61 | 25.0% | 32.7% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Vukovar
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Vukovar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VukovarWWDLW
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Jadran LPWLDWD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
VukovarJadran LP
66.7Attack33.3
0.0Defence66.7
0.0Form33.3
23.7Power45.3
1.20xG1.18