Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vukovar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vukovar 1-0 Hrvace
Original prediction
Vukovar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 48.5% | 44.0% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.5% | 27.6% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.80 | 24.0% | 28.4% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.88 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Vukovar
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Vukovar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VukovarLLLWW
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
HrvaceWWDLL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
VukovarHrvace
55.6Attack33.3
27.8Defence42.9
38.9Form33.3
42.6Power38.3
1.78xG1.22