Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vratimov · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vratimov 2-1 Frýdlant
Original prediction
Vratimov
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 70.1% | 53.3% | -16.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.24 | 17.1% | 23.3% | 6.2 pts |
| Away | 7.06 | 12.7% | 23.4% | 10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Vratimov
Probability
53.3%
Model confidence
53.3%
Vratimov has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VratimovWWWLD
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
FrýdlantLLLDW
GF 6 · GA 24 · avg 1.20/4.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
VratimovFrýdlant
66.7Attack43.3
50.0Defence45.6
50.0Form38.9
56.2Power44.4
2.07xG1.24