Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VPS · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
VPS are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LWDDD), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Ilves are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and VPS hold a 6.3-point power-rating edge (54.7 v 48.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.5% in the Veikkausliiga, while VPS holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
VPS
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
48.5%
VPS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60