Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
VPS 1-0 Gnistan
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 13:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 37.8% | 34.2% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.9% | 30.0% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.62 | 35.3% | 35.8% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.0%
Model confidence
35.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VPSLLLWL
GF 1 · GA 10 · avg 0.20/2.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
GnistanDDWDD
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
VPSGnistan
38.5Attack51.3
60.3Defence59.0
46.2Form53.8
49.3Power55.6
1.00xG1.14