Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Vojvodina are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Ajax are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Ajax hold a 27.6-point power-rating edge (16.3 v 43.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.4% in the UEFA Europa League, while Ajax holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ajax
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40