Vänersborgs FKvs
Ahlafors
COMPLETEDSweden · Division 2 - Norra Götaland · 9/4/2026, 5:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ahlafors · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (9%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vänersborgs FK 1-0 Ahlafors
Original prediction
Ahlafors
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.25 | 21.4% | 15.5% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 22.2% | 17.1% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 1.61 | 56.4% | 67.5% | 11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–39%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Ahlafors
Probability
67.5%
Model confidence
67.5%
Ahlafors has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80