Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Orihuela · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Vélez are 2W-1D-1L in their last 4 (DWWL), averaging 0.75 scored and 0.50 conceded, while Orihuela are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 9 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Orihuela hold an 18.1-point power-rating edge (35.9 v 54.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.3% in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4, while Orihuela holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Orihuela
Probability
48.3%
Model confidence
48.3%
Orihuela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.75/0.50
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20