Vélez Sársfield Res.vs
Racing Club Res.
COMPLETEDArgentina · Reserve League · 10/15/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vélez Sársfield Res. · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (14%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vélez Sársfield Res. 4-0 Racing Club Res.
Original prediction
Vélez Sársfield Res.
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 58.5% | 49.1% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.80 | 23.5% | 27.3% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 4.93 | 18.1% | 23.6% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.2–014%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Vélez Sársfield Res.
Probability
49.1%
Model confidence
49.1%
Vélez Sársfield Res. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40