Vélez Sársfield Res.vs
Ferro 2
COMPLETEDArgentina · Reserve League · 9/22/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vélez Sársfield Res. · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Vélez Sársfield Res. 1-0 Ferro 2, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Vélez Sársfield Res. 4-0 Ferro 2
Original prediction
Vélez Sársfield Res.
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.30 | 69.2% | 61.2% | -7.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.48 | 20.0% | 23.0% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 8.28 | 10.8% | 15.7% | 4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.30 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.9 pts
Projected Score
Vélez Sársfield Res. 1–0 Ferro 2
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Vélez Sársfield Res.
Probability
61.2%
Model confidence
61.2%
Vélez Sársfield Res. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 0.80/0.20
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20