Vitória de Sernachevs
Varzim
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Varzim · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vitória de Sernache 2-1 Varzim
Original prediction
Varzim
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.28 | 21.1% | 30.5% | 9.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.0% | 26.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.74 | 51.9% | 42.8% | -9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Varzim
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Varzim has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20