Vitória de Sernachevs
Louletano
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga 3 · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Louletano · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vitória de Sernache 1-0 Louletano
Original prediction
Louletano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 15:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 32.3% | 31.0% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.4% | 29.9% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.38 | 38.3% | 39.2% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Louletano
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Louletano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00