Vitória de Sernachevs
CF Os Belenenses
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga 3 · 9/6/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CF Os Belenenses · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Vitória de Sernache 0-0 CF Os Belenenses, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Vitória de Sernache 1-3 CF Os Belenenses
Original prediction
CF Os Belenenses
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.12 | 17.7% | 28.6% | 10.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 26.3% | 30.2% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 1.62 | 56.0% | 41.3% | -14.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.7 pts
Projected Score
Vitória de Sernache 0–0 CF Os Belenenses
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
CF Os Belenenses
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
CF Os Belenenses has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40