Vitoriavs
Universidad Catolica
COMPLETEDWorld · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 4/3/2025, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Vitoria are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Universidad Catolica are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LWDDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Universidad Catolica hold a 14.5-point power-rating edge (45.6 v 60.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.6% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 24% BTTS chance and 15% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00