Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Vitoria are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWDLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Mirassol are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LLDDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Mirassol hold a 2.6-point power-rating edge (42.6 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.0% in the Serie A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 34% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60