Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Vitoria are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Coritiba are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LDWDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Coritiba hold a 5.0-point power-rating edge (44.2 v 49.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.5% in the Serie A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80