Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vitesse · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vitesse 2-2 NAC Breda
Original prediction
Vitesse
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.00 | 30.9% | 42.4% | 11.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 24.3% | 23.4% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 44.9% | 34.2% | -10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.82 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Vitesse
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Vitesse has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VitesseLWLWW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NAC BredaWWLLD
GF 12 · GA 12 · avg 2.40/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
VitesseNAC Breda
54.2Attack70.8
54.2Defence29.2
54.2Form54.2
54.8Power53.8
2.35xG1.75