Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Emmen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vitesse 0-2 Emmen
Original prediction
Emmen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 40.9% | 35.6% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.7% | 25.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.77 | 33.4% | 38.8% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Emmen
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Emmen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VitesseWLDLW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
EmmenWWDWL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
VitesseEmmen
45.5Attack72.7
54.5Defence42.4
45.5Form66.7
49.6Power61.5
1.64xG1.91