Virtusvs
San Marino Academy
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 10/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Virtus · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Virtus 5-0 San Marino Academy
Original prediction
Virtus
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.10 | 81.9% | 59.5% | -22.4 pts |
| Draw | 6.88 | 13.2% | 22.7% | 9.5 pts |
| Away | 18.25 | 5.0% | 17.8% | 12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.1–112%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Virtus
Probability
59.5%
Model confidence
59.5%
Virtus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20