Virtusvs
La Fiorita
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 8/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Virtus · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Virtus 0-0 La Fiorita
Original prediction
Virtus
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 42.1% | 40.5% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.8% | 26.6% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.00 | 30.1% | 32.9% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.25 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Virtus
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Virtus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VirtusWLLWL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
La FioritaLLDWL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
VirtusLa Fiorita
67.8Attack72.4
77.8Defence80.0
87.8Form82.9
78.3Power77.8
1.21xG1.09