Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Virtus · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Virtus are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Domagnano are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Virtus hold a 45.4-point power-rating edge (88.7 v 43.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.3% in the Coppa Titano, while Virtus holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Virtus
Probability
58.3%
Model confidence
58.3%
Virtus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20