Virtus Francavillavs
Manfredonia
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie D - Girone H · 10/25/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Virtus Francavilla · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Virtus Francavilla 2-0 Manfredonia
Original prediction
Virtus Francavilla
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 53.3% | 42.1% | -11.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.0% | 27.9% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 4.29 | 20.7% | 30.0% | 9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Virtus Francavilla
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Virtus Francavilla has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80