Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Start · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vindbjart 2-3 Start
Original prediction
Start
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.23 | 9.9% | 32.0% | 22.2 pts |
| Draw | 5.63 | 16.2% | 24.3% | 8.1 pts |
| Away | 1.23 | 74.0% | 43.7% | -30.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-30.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Start
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Start has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VindbjartLWWWL
GF 16 · GA 7 · avg 3.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
StartWLWLL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
VindbjartStart
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.89xG1.61