Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Buchbach · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vilzing 1-1 Buchbach
Original prediction
Buchbach
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.75 | 33.1% | 28.1% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.9% | 26.5% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 43.1% | 45.4% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.81 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Buchbach
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Buchbach has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VilzingLDDDD
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BuchbachLDWWW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
VilzingBuchbach
54.5Attack69.4
45.5Defence69.4
48.5Form75.0
52.0Power71.8
1.02xG2.22