Villarrealvs
Napoli
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Villarreal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Villarreal 3-1 Napoli
Original prediction
Villarreal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 45.6% | 40.6% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 26.1% | 27.0% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.38 | 28.3% | 32.4% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Villarreal
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Villarreal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00