GGOALVIO

World · UEFA Europa League · 3/14/2024, 5:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Marseille · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Villarreal are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWD), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Marseille are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 3.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Villarreal hold a 2.5-point power-rating edge (57.9 v 55.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.5% in the UEFA Europa League, while Marseille holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 68% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Marseille

Probability

36.5%

Model confidence

36.5%

Marseille has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

VillarrealWLWWD

GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MarseilleWWWWW

GF 18 · GA 3 · avg 3.60/0.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
VillarrealMarseille
50.0Attack64.3
50.0Defence47.6
66.7Form52.4
57.9Power55.4
1.71xG1.73
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