Villarrealvs
Levante
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/20/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Villarreal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Villarreal 3-1 Levante
Original prediction
Villarreal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 62.8% | 48.6% | -14.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.69 | 20.3% | 23.3% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 5.64 | 16.9% | 28.1% | 11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Villarreal
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
Villarreal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80