Villarrealvs
Elche
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 10/17/2026, 2:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Villarreal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Villarreal 0-0 Elche
Original prediction
Villarreal
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 07:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 66.2% | 60.0% | -6.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.98 | 19.1% | 19.6% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 6.43 | 14.8% | 20.4% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.98 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Villarreal
Probability
60.0%
Model confidence
60.0%
Villarreal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60