Villarrealvs
Deportivo La Coruna
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/5/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Villarreal · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Villarreal 2-3 Deportivo La Coruna
Original prediction
Villarreal
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 64.2% | 40.4% | -23.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.47 | 21.2% | 25.9% | 4.7 pts |
| Away | 6.50 | 14.6% | 33.8% | 19.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Villarreal
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Villarreal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80