Villarreal IIvs
Ibiza
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Villarreal II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Villarreal II 0-0 Ibiza, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Villarreal II 0-1 Ibiza
Original prediction
Villarreal II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 44.6% | 41.9% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.9% | 30.8% | 3.8 pts |
| Away | 3.20 | 28.4% | 27.3% | -1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Projected Score
Villarreal II 0–0 Ibiza
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Villarreal II
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Villarreal II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60