Villarreal IIvs
FC Cartagena
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/25/2026, 1:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Villarreal II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Villarreal II 4-1 FC Cartagena
Original prediction
Villarreal II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.6% | 40.8% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.8% | 29.0% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.56 | 25.6% | 30.2% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Villarreal II
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Villarreal II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60