Vila Novavs
Novorizontino
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie B · 10/18/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Novorizontino · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Vila Nova 0-0 Novorizontino, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Vila Nova 2-2 Novorizontino
Original prediction
Novorizontino
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.76 | 33.5% | 30.8% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 30.8% | 29.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.59 | 35.7% | 39.6% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.01 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.9 pts
Projected Score
Vila Nova 0–0 Novorizontino
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Novorizontino
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Novorizontino has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Vila NovaWDWWW
GF 6 · GA 0 · avg 1.20/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
NovorizontinoWWWDL
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Vila NovaNovorizontino
46.5Attack59.6
68.7Defence71.7
61.6Form60.6
59.9Power63.8
0.84xG1.03