Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vila Nova · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vila Nova 2-0 Londrina
Original prediction
Vila Nova
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 55.3% | 54.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.5% | 25.0% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 5.09 | 18.2% | 20.2% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Vila Nova
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
54.8%
Vila Nova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Vila NovaWDWLW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
LondrinaLWWLD
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Vila NovaLondrina
47.1Attack44.8
64.4Defence52.9
58.6Form32.2
57.7Power43.2
1.50xG0.83