Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vila Nova · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Vila Nova 1-0 Goias, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Vila Nova 2-0 Goias
Original prediction
Vila Nova
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 46.1% | 51.1% | 4.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 31.0% | 28.3% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 4.06 | 22.8% | 20.7% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.9 pts
Projected Score
Vila Nova 1–0 Goias
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Vila Nova
Probability
51.1%
Model confidence
51.1%
Vila Nova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Vila NovaLWDWW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
GoiasLWDLL
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Vila NovaGoias
47.4Attack32.1
61.5Defence60.3
56.4Form46.2
56.0Power48.4
1.24xG0.66