Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vila Nova · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Vila Nova 0-0 Cuiaba, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Vila Nova 0-0 Cuiaba
Original prediction
Vila Nova
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 09:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 43.5% | 41.0% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 30.8% | 33.1% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.62 | 25.7% | 25.9% | 0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.03 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Projected Score
Vila Nova 0–0 Cuiaba
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Vila Nova
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Vila Nova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Vila NovaWWWDW
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
CuiabaWLWDW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Vila NovaCuiaba
47.3Attack34.4
66.7Defence73.1
61.3Form49.5
59.4Power53.9
0.83xG0.62