Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vila Nova · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Vila Nova 1-0 Ceara, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Vila Nova 2-0 Ceara
Original prediction
Vila Nova
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 48.4% | 54.5% | 6.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.9% | 26.7% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 4.11 | 22.6% | 18.8% | -3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.1 pts
Projected Score
Vila Nova 1–0 Ceara
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Vila Nova
Probability
54.5%
Model confidence
54.5%
Vila Nova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Vila NovaDWWLL
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
CearaWLLWW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Vila NovaCeara
48.6Attack34.7
65.3Defence58.3
56.9Form38.9
58.0Power46.4
1.35xG0.64